UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R3
Submission/Decision

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, DEC
Decision/Submission

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, DEC
Decision/Submission

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO
KO/Submission

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO
KO/Decision

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO
KO/Decision

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, DEC
Decision/Submission

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, DEC
Decision/Submission

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Cody Stamann, DEC
Decision/KO

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO
KO/Submission

Alves vs. Dalby
Nicolas Dalby, DEC
Decision/KO

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO
KO/Decision

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Daniel Marcos, DEC
Decision/KO

call me stupid, but i'll risk it robocop v. brunno x craig v. walker both over 1.5 with +520 .

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R3
Glover should be able to survive the early storm and then get Hill down and sub him. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hill destroy him in round 1 or 2 though but I have to leave Glover due to the massive ground game advantage and his old man strength.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Brandon Moreno, DEC
Moreno is gonna piece Figueiredo up and finish this rivalry. It's gonna be extremely close once again but I like the speed of Moreno and he can get takedowns if needed.

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R2
Burns better hope he can get this to the ground or he could gas out and get finished. Magny has always been very underrated but he's gonna get taken down and subbed pretty early most likely.

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Murphy is tough, that's it. Andrade is gonna finish her.

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
Johnny Walker is either gonna brutally knock Craig out or Craig is gonna sub him. There's no in between. Walker should be way too quick for Craig and then he's gonna crack his chin.

Rua vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, TKO, R1
It's time for Rua to retire. This isn't gonna go well for him.

Rodrigues vs. Ferreira
Gregory Rodrigues, TKO, R1
Ferreira is actually pretty good and could get a first round finish here but it's gonna be almost impossible for him to put Gregory away in this one. I'm taking Rodrigues for a first round finish.

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, SUB, R1
Thiago makes this look extremely easy. He's a good fighter that is very underrated.

Bonfim vs. Lazzez
Gabriel Bonfim, SUB, R1
I'm still not sold on Lazzez. I'm taking Bonfim to finish him in this.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, TKO, R1
Brutal ground and pound coming. This fight isn't even fair. Shamil better hope that Almeida gasses and then he can finish him but the chances of that happening is very very low.

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Cody Stamann, DEC
Taking Stamann here but wouldn't be shocked if Lacerda pulls off the upset. Not high on Stamann.

McKinney vs. Bonfim
Terrance McKinney, TKO, R1
McKinney wins this in round one but if it gets out of the first round then he's gonna lose. Bonfim is no joke so McKinney better hope he can get the finish early or has worked on his cardio.

Alves vs. Dalby
Warlley Alves, DEC
Alves gonna upset Dalby. I don't think Dalby is that good. Alves is inconsistent but you can see the skills.

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
Early knockout for Nunes. She's a beast. Fairn is AWFUL.

Marcos vs. Oliveira
Saimon Oliveira, DEC
I'm taking Oliveira here but this is another fight that's gonna be very close. Oliveira gets taken down very easily but he has a decent sub game off of his back. I think he could keep this standing though or possibly go for takedowns or his own.

Burns vs. Magny
Gilbert Burns, SUB, R1
Magny is a gatekeeper who has honestly had a good career in the UFC, but good grapplers have always been his kryptonite: finished by Sergio Moraes, Maia, RDA and Shavkat and also completely dominated by Chiesa's Wrestling/Grappling. Durinho loves land hooks and brawl but he was BJJ world champion and before the brutal change he gave in his fighting style in his last days as a lightweight and his welterweight debut, the ground was always his area of ​​work. I see a Gilbert fighting strategically like he did against Wonderboy, taking the floor to Magny where he has been beaten multiple times and finishing him in the first round.

Andrade vs. Murphy
Jéssica Andrade, TKO, R2
Much like Zarah Fairn and Nicolas Dalby, Lauren Murphy is another case of fighters who have aged and not in the Glover Texeira way. Andrade is a real wrecking ball and win or lose his fights are always entertaining (by far Andrade is the most spectacular WMMA Fighter in UFC history). Andrade will use Murphy as a punching-back until she gets a knockdown or the referee waived Murphy.

Craig vs. Walker
Johnny Walker, TKO, R1
Walker is one of the most outrageous cases of hype train gone haywire: he went from being the man who was the perfect challenger for Jon Jones in the eyes of many to the Looney Tunes embarrassing KO losses against Anderson and Hill (not counting the 2 Looney Tunes Knockdowns against Spann, but Spann found his way to being knocked out). Craig had shown some improvement in his fight game since the first fight against Shogun Rua, but I feel like he's back to being that pull guard looking for a triangle or loss fighter and I think there's less of Walker coming out with a really bad fight IQ in the fight and finish back mounted at some point in the fight should fix it quickly by KO. Walker still has that awesome power and even though Craig isn't a glass jaw, he's already been KOed multiple times in the past.

Moisés vs. Costa
Thiago Moisés, DEC
Moises is a top 15 level fighter but is in a stagnant category of good talent. Costa has looked good in the regionals, but Thiago is a bad matchup debut especially in short notice. I pick Moises to combine his ever-improving striking in conjunction with his ground game to secure a clear decision win.

Almeida vs. Abdurakhimov
Jailton Almeida, SUB, R1
There is no great mystery in this fight, Almeida is going to close the distance, take Shamil to the ground and submit him in the first round. The only thing that leaves me wondering is that Jailton really doesn't seem to cut much weight to fight in HW, it would be interesting to see if he would definitely stay in HW or drop back down to 205 pounds for his next fight.

Alves vs. Dalby
Warlley Alves, SUB, R2
Dalby had a good level in the past and has a reputation as a Brazilian Killer (he's beaten the likes of Elizeu Zaleski and Cowboy Oliviera), but he's noted his slowing reflexes and now has cardio issues, all related to getting older. Alves was always in the middle of the pack for welterweights, highlighting taking Colby Covington's undefeated, a victory against Alan Jouban (controversial decision) and finishing Lazzez. His losses were against fighters like Randy Brown, Bryan Barberena, James Krause and Kamaru Usman, losing against 2 gatekeepers, 1 current ranked and a former champion of the category. Alves is a decent but not outstanding fighter in every aspect of the fight game, but in his early years Alves had one of the best chops in the UFC and even finished Covington this way. I see Dalby and Alves exchanging leg kicks in the first round and the moment Dalby wants to take the fight to the ground in the second as he is more tired, Alves will most likely secure a guillotine choke.

Nunes vs. Fairn
Josiane Nunes, TKO, R1
Fairn has the entire triad of potential downsides that a UFC fighter could face: long periods of inactivity, getting older and has never shown himself to be of UFC caliber in your previous fights in the famed Octagon. It may never be small for its weight class, but it has good reach for its body proportion and possesses legitimate KO power. There is not much mystery in the analysis of this fight, My Prediction: Nunes by Baseball Swing Hooks first-round stoppage.

The curious thing about Fairn's case is that in the UFC it was mainly used in matchmaking as record padding to give title shots to Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer against Amanda Nunes. Actually, the UFC gave him a much more even matchup against Perez at UFC Paris, but hey Zarah pulled out one week before those fights and Egger put a beatdown on Perez. Fighting in Brazil against a Hometown Fighter is a clear sign that everything is on track for a 0-3 record and release by the matchmakers.

But still, his first two fights are clear evidence that there is also record padding in the UFC and I'm not talking about Sean O'Malley or the usual darlings who are accused of having special treatment by Dana.

* Edited at 01.21.2023, 2:40 AM ET *

Amettxpc Isn't this common knowledge though?

Teixeira vs. Hill
Glover Teixeira, SUB, R3
I believe Glover’s got one more fight’s worth of chin left in him. He’ll get rocked and wake up in top mount. Out of desperation, Hill gives up the back and Glover gets the sub.

Figueiredo vs. Moreno IV
Brandon Moreno, TKO, R4
¡Viva México!

Dogs of the day 
Lacenda ,Shogun,Figgy and Texeira

yeah, it's pretty obvious that many fighters have benefited from convenient matchmaking, there are dozens of examples of top 5-10, title contenders and even title holders who got to that position with mostly slow-ball matchups that suited their fighting styles. I'm not a fan of Sean O'Malley but it's funny how the MMA Community tends to call an overhype job when they don't like a fighter with this suitable matchup, but if a fighter receives the same treatment but if he likes it, they comment on things like some fighter is legit or is the next big time for MMA.
 
Although I honestly don't remember anyone thinking that Megan Anderson or Felicia Spencer had any chance of beating Amanda Nunes, although Felicia Spencer endured going to the scorecards against Amanda Nunes and Cris Cyborg already that can be considered an achievement in itself.

John Walker doesnt have the fight IQ to do what Volkan did to Paul Craig, he getting subbed in the first round

Walker by sub isn’t impossible either 

DamienHandel420

Holy **** dude do you even read your own comments? 😂 Your spelling is as if a 10 year old got drunk and started commenting about mma. *** are you even writing my dude? Is that your own autistic language you use? Half your comments are gibberish and make 0 sense. 

A year ago it was "pointanal" (I guess this autist was trying to say potential) 😂

Now it's horribly spelled words. You have a phone/computer. All these devices have technologies that correct your grammar by one click. Why not try that? 

Just go to his profile and read his comments. 

I'm surprised so many view this as a pickem. Don't get me wrong Walker ain't all that but I can't see Craig dragging him to the ground with his shoddy takedowns. Providing Walker doesn't have a -300 IQ (and many have) he keeps Craig standing where he's extremely uncomfortable and perfectly hittable. Stay away from Craig's guard and the fight is yours - it's honestly that simple. Craig hasn't shown us he can sub you 30 different way, he does it to overconfident guys who try to smesh him.

Who on god's green earth is making Saimon Oliveira a favorite in a UFC fight?

Lacerda vs. Stamann
Luan Lacerda, SUB, R2
Who made this match?!

Marcos' quality of competition thus far has been pretty below average for an undefeated fighter making his UFC debut at 29. It's really not hard at all to understand why he's a slight dog.

I really can't undersell this point. His record is that unimpressive. He has 4 solid wins by my assessment. In my opinion, the oddsmakers are probably going off his DWCS performance alone where he fought a complete fight and was very close to a finish. He's also fought a lot of guys smaller than him that are around Oliveiras size (5'4-5'6). If I remember correctly Oliveria opened around -190 but is now around -145.

Oliveira isn't really a world beater but has been getting finishes against better competition lately and already has his first UFC fight under his belt. Add in the hometown crowd probably pumping him up big time to open the card and it makes perfect sense to me why Oliveira is favored.

This is a very good example where taking a glance at a guys record doesn't tell you the entire story. For example, when he was 4-0 he beat a fellow undefeated fighter in Andres Cordero Cordova. That looks like a great head to have for a guy whos only 4-0 until you realize Andres Cordova has gone 7-13 since they fought and isn't good at all.

Close fight and good matchmaking but I think Oliveira subs him and wouldn't be surprised if he makes it look fairly easy. He almost has as many wins by subs as Marcos does total fights.