UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

@foppa I agree mostly with what you’re saying but I think it’s a bit disingenuous to say there is “no way to prepare for it”. I mean, you are technically right since he can’t practice in front of a crowd of angry Brazilians, but based off of his calm demeanor & comments about wanting to go to Brazil & win in enemy territory, it seems like he understands what he’s gotten himself into. Maybe he shuts his pants in the bright lights but I don’t think it’s fair to automatically assume that will happen just because he shouldn’t be getting the title shot. I also feel stage fright is a little overrated; we only really see it with debutants or blatant mismatches (while I heavily favor Pantoja, I don’t think this is a mismatch in the sense that Erceg is actually skilled, I’m talking about fights like Brito vs Wilson or Klein vs cunningham). Finally, he had multiple defenses of his belt on the regional scene. Obviously, regional and ufc title fights are vastly different, but the mentality is the same coming in & he has had multiple camps preparing for title fights before, so it’s not like this is unfamiliar territory.

* Edited at 04.30.2024, 3:04 PM ET *

I am glad that Paul Felder is doing commentary on this card instead of Joe Rogan.

@tepid55 

Paul "The Irish Goat" Felder

I want to pick Erceg so bad here... but I know as soon as Many Men starts playing with the brazil crowd going crazy I will have wish I put my house on Pantoja. I am just going to stay away from picking this fight completely so I can enjoy the chaos these two will bring.

Barbosa. By submission 

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R2
Brito will have hard on being in brazi since he is american. The opposite effect for shore being a pastey welshman in the favelas

@Trail Allman 

As an Erceg fan I'm banking on this being the perfect enviornment for Erceg but i get you 10000%, Big test for Erceg

I too prefer Paul over Joe but he is more biased esp to gingers weird but less full of **** and egotistical. 

Pantoja vs. Erceg
Steve Erceg, DEC
ERCEG BY SUB?

Martinez vs. Aldo
José Aldo, DEC
Aldo O1.5

Pereira vs. Potieria
Michel Pereira, TKO
Either TKO or DEC

Pereira will destroy that guy 🔒

What happens if Pantoja can't get Erceg out of there early?

@ayy
We're on the same page I think. My overall point was more that the cards in general are just really stacked against Erceg. It's not just the intensity of the moment and the crowd. He's out-gunned skill (if only marginally) and experience wise. Anything can happen of course, but I think he'd have to win a decision here with how tough Pantoja is. Beating the best guy in the world over 5 rounds when you've never fought championship rounds is a tall task anywhere. The added element of being in Pantoja's hometown and in front of an unusually unruly crowd makes it that much more unrealistic for me that Erceg can pull this off. 

If I was putting a percentage on it, I'd say Erceg has like a 10% chance of actually pulling this off. He's definitely got the skill to do it, but to say the cards are stacked against him would be a serious understatement. I think he was still 2 good ranked wins away from really earning this opportunity. I don't think he's ready for it just yet.

@gliese
Then he just smashes him for 5 rounds or breaks him and gets a later finish? Why do you ask? I personally see Pantoja getting an earlier finish but I'm curious why you think it matter whether that happens or not.

I'm just thinking out loud. These are the kind of questions I ask myself for any fight so as to not get locked into a single narrative.

* Edited at 04.30.2024, 7:30 PM ET *

This line should be wider. Pantoja should be -500. Don’t see how Erceg wins this. His last 3 wins were good, not convinced here that he’s a world class beater here.

Then Pantoja wins a decision. In fact that's the most likely outcome 

Really hope Erceg goes out there and dosen´t make a fool of himself. Hope he does good, would be nice to get a good, new contender and maybe champion for the future of the Flyweights even if he dosen´t win.

Brito vs. Shore
Joanderson Brito, SUB, R2
Brito is built different and jack shore wont be able to keep up with him. Brito will pick him apart but i can see shore winning just not likely.

Bonfim vs. Pichel
Ismael Bonfim, TKO, R1
can crusher fight

I'm looking at this card from the viewpoint that the UFC want a 14-0 Brazil night where possible and compelling fights where not. The only fight that is a bit baffling from this perspective is Brener v Orolbai. Why do they keep giving Brener elite wrestlers when he overcomes the odds and gets the upset? Do they just want to get rid of him? Not that he can't win here but it's definitely not a setup fight to score another win for Brazil.

Using this mindset it's clear what the UFC is thinking in the Kareckaite Barbosa fight. Put a weak tall striker with lackluster passive pointfighting her feet close together, against the Brazilian with good grappling who has a win over Karine Silva.
I was nodding along to this narrative until I got to Kareckaite's Contender Series fight. It's like a complete different fighter. First of all she's added a lot of muscle in just a couple of months since her fight before that and she went on an all out aggressive sprint for 15 minutes, incredible output and cardio displayed.
If I wasn't so convinced that UFC has nothing but the best sportsmen and sportswomen in the world I would almost suspect she's been putting some special sauce in her nutrition.

I think if Kareckaite shows up like she did on Contender Series she could give Barbosa a challenge. She would definitely have a striking and cardio edge to what I've seen from Barbosa. I still lean the hometown grappler overall but I went ahead and put a wager on Kareckaite at almost +200 as this is a fight I definitely could see go either way.

Martinez vs. Aldo
José Aldo, DEC
win

Craig vs. Borralho
Paul Craig, DEC
win

Kowalkiewicz vs. Lucindo
Karolina Kowalkiewicz, DEC
win

Silva vs. Klose
Drakkar Klose, DEC
win

Barbosa vs. Kareckaite
Ernesta Kareckaite, DEC
winj

ERCEG WINS THIS SAME WAY AS CONOR WON IN RIO , BUT A BIT LATER ROUNDS. I HAD A DREAM.